Ireland's Failure - and Belated Convergence. WP133. September 2000

Ireland began its career as an independent state with many advantages. In particular, its standard of living in 1922 was higher than that of many other countries in Western Europe (Kennedy et al., 1988). In spite of these advantages, its ranking within Europe in terms of standard of living fell over the following 40 years. In the 15 years after the Second World War its economic performance was dismal, and some of this failure must be attributed to the inappropriate policies of successive post-war governments, continuing the protectionist stance of the pre-war years (O'Grada, 1994). With this background, the story of the Irish economy in the 20th century may be better considered as a case study in failure: the current boom is better seen as a belated catching up, consequent on the reversal of the ill-conceived policies of the immediate post-war years, rather than as an "economic miracle"

To convergence and beyond? Human capital, economic adjustment and a return to growth. ESRI WP419, January 2012

This paper considers the impact on growth and convergence in the EU over the last 20 years of investment in human capital. It examines the current adjustment of a range of economies to the external imbalances at the beginning of the current crisis. Finally it considers how the adjustments  under way will contribute to a return  to long-term growth.

The Irish Energy Market – Putting the Consumer First. ESRI WP145. August 2002

Ireland has a long history of promoting the interests of producers instead of the interests of consumers. This emphasis must be understood in the context of our twentieth century history - a dependence on agriculture and a shortage of suitable employment. In their report on Regulatory Reform of the Irish economy the OECD (2001) noted the extent of the “producer focus” in Ireland, and the resulting reduced emphasis on the benefits of competition. The OECD report suggested that if the competitiveness of the Irish economy is to be sustained in the future, action will have to be taken to redress the balance in favour of competition and the consumer. It is from this background that I approach the principles that should inform Irish energy policy. Ultimately the objective of policy makers should be to minimise the cost of energy to Irish consumers in the long run, while ensuring that the supply of energy in its different forms is secure

Generation Adequacy in an Island Electricity System. ESRI WP161. October 2004

Electricity systems are unusual because of the fact that electricity cannot be stored. This means that supply must exactly equal demand second by second throughout the day. Generation capacity takes time to build and is very expensive and demand is quite insensitive to price signals. The result is a system where either there is sufficient spare generation capacity to meet all possible levels of demand or else, periodically, the lights will go off for some consumers

Fiscal Policy for Recovery. ESRI WP326, October 2009

A year ago, when the full impact of the financial crisis hit Ireland, it took some time for economists to assess what was happening and what were the full implications of the disaster. Economic forecasts were changing daily and the huge uncertainty about what was actually developing made policy-making exceptionally difficult. However, over the course of the winter and early spring economists came to understand what was happening in Ireland and the outside world somewhat better. In May, with colleagues in the ESRI, we published a paper (Bergin et al., 2009) which considered the possible paths to recovery for the Irish economy. This analysis suggested that the Irish economy, while suffering major permanent damage as a consequence of the recession, would return to a period of quite rapid growth once the world economy itself entered the recovery phase. At the time of publishing the recovery in the world economy was only a gleam in the economists’ eye. However, over the last six months there have been increasing signs of a return, if not to business as usual in the world economy, at least to limited growth

Lessons from 20 Years of Cohesion. ESRI WP159. September 2004

Over the last twenty years the four poorest states in the EU 15 have experienced very significant benefits as a consequence of their membership of the EU. Ireland became a member of the then EEC as early as 1973, whereas Greece became a member in 1980 and Spain and Portugal in the middle of the 1980s. These four “cohesion” states have pursued rather different policies over the past twenty years and have undergone rather different experiences of integration into the EU economy. For three of the four countries the last twenty years have seen a significant convergence in living standards towards the EU average. For Ireland the period of convergence in the 1990s was quite dramatic in terms of its speed. However, the progress in Spain and Portugal was also notable over the same period. It is only in the case of Greece that the progress has been less marked over the same period

Ireland – An Ageing Multicultural Economy. ESRI WP157. August 2004

In the 1970s and the early 1980s, like the old woman who lived in a shoe, we had so many children that we did not know what to do. The refrain of “too many people and not enough jobs” had echoed round Ireland for at least a century and a half. However, over the space of a decade, from 1985 to 1995, the public perception of Ireland’s demographic challenge was transformed. Instead of worrying about safe jobs for our children in the civil service, the relative youth of the population came to be seen as a major economic benefit and speeches and commentary in the media began to trumpet the relative youth of the population as a source of major strength. Was this apparent transformation a “miracle” or did it have more mundane roots

Energy Policy in Ireland. ESRI WP160. June 2003

The ultimate objective of energy policy in Ireland, or in any other country, must be to ensure delivery of a secure supply of energy at minimum cost to consumers. Even within this seemingly simple objective the interaction of security of supply with cost means that energy policy will not be simple or obvious. To make matters even more complex, the important environmental problems associated with energy production and use also affect policy choices. At the very least there are choices to be made between cost and security of supply. In the case of the environmental issues, the separate identification of standards to be met or the cost of environmental damage done can allow the environmental objectives to be quantified and to some extent integrated into the calculus. However, the complexity of the engineering and economic issues makes energy a particularly difficult area for policy-makers. The purpose of this note is to identify the range of different issues that confront policy makers in the energy field and to try and simplify some, but not all, of these complex issues

Energy Demand to 2015. ESRI WP136. December 2000

This working paper outlines a set of forecasts for the likely development of energy demand in Ireland over the next 15 years. The “Central Forecast”, based on the ESRI Medium-Term Review: 1999-2006, published last year, represents the scenario that we consider to be the most likely. However, because of the wide range of uncertainty involved in such an exercise, we also describe two other scenarios – a high and a low growth scenario. In these two scenarios we have varied the assumptions concerning the likely rate of economic growth in the medium term. In addition, we have also varied some other assumptions relating specifically to the development of the energy sector. The requirement to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases will play a significant role in determining the future growth path of the energy sector. While the recently published government National Climate Strategy report does set out a range of measures to be taken to reduce Irish emissions, the uncertainty about the full implications of policy changes for the energy sector is reflected in the range of assumptions examined in this paper

TAX REFORM AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN THE MEDIUM TERM. ESRI Working Paper No. 11, October 1989

This paper considers how future macro-economic developments in the Irish economy and elsewhere are likely to affect the distribution of income and the tax system. In particular it examines how 1992 and related developments will affect the scope for using the tax system to change the distribution of income. In addition, using the ESRI's macro-economic model it explores the extent to which policy on income distribution is likely to be constrained by the existing structure of the economy